For Nerds: The Odds of Finding the One
Dating is a numbers game.
One of my favorite quotes about love is the following quote from one of the greatest theoretical physicists of all time:
“Physics isn’t the most important thing. Love is.” — Richard Feynman
Even a billionaire who is a CEO of two companies (Tesla & SpaceX) and works 80–100 hours a week had this to say about love:
“If I’m not in love, if I’m not with a long-term companion, I cannot be happy.” — Elon Musk
In this blog post, I want to explore what are the odds of actually finding a soulmate.
NB: The estimations that I do here are just done to give insight on finding a soulmate. I use myself as an example in the calculations that I do.
Estimating the Odds
We all know that there are at least 7 billion people in the world, but most people like to date someone who is closer to their geographical location. So now we need to pick a place. I will pick Johannesburg, South Africa, since I live there. So now the question is: what are the odds of finding someone truly meant for you A.K.A a soulmate, in Johannesburg?
Well, first of all, how many people are there in Johannesburg currently? There are currently about 5,926,668 people in Johannesburg. Since I am 27 years old, I have to determine how many females are there between the ages 20–29. For this calculation I use the latest population pyramid that I could find of the whole of South Africa and assume that:
- It’s the same distribution for Johannesburg.
- The 2020 population pyramid hasn’t changed much for the age range 20 -29 in 2021.
As we can see, there are about 4.1% females aged 20–24 and 4.4% females aged 25–29. What this could infer based on my assumptions is that there are about 503,767 females aged 20-29.
The question here now is: how many of them would I find attractive? Well, in percentage, I would probably find 40% of the females aged 20-29 attractive, but the number might be lower. Actually, OkCupid an online dating site, showed profile pictures of women who were members to “men looking for women” members, and the other way around (pictures of men users to “women looking for men” ones) and had them rate them on a seven-point scale from least attractive to most attractive. These are the results:
If we take the middle bar to be “average” and the bars to the right to be varying degrees of “above average” then men find approximately 40% of women to be ‘above average’ and approximately 40% of women to be ‘below average.’
I know these are group stats, but I’ll still assume that I find 40% of the women attractive. That would then leave me with 201,507 females who are potential mates.
Now another question to ask is: how many of them are happily married, happy in relationships, would not be interested in me romantically or would be into another man? Well, there are simply too many factors to account for. Women finding me attractive could have something to do with my facial symmetry, jawline, personality, athleticism, salary/earning potential, age difference, height, body mass index B.M.I, being single/taken, being “in their league,” my frailties, etc. It all depends on the woman. OkCupid also conducted the same study for “women looking for men” members. Here are the results:
As we can see, women find approximately 7% of men to be “above average” and approximately 81% of men to be “below average” in terms of attractiveness.
In general, I think that dating apps are no silver bullet when it comes to finding true love or dates that lead to relationships. This applies to both men and women. I am going to be a bit optimistic and assume that 7/10 of the women are married, taken or could just be unable to date me for a few or numerous reasons. So, I’m assuming that 30% of the women that I meet are available to me, that leaves me with 141,054 attractive females.
Now I would like to focus on only a few factors that I consider major deal breakers. I tend to look at whether a female is
- A smoker or non-smoker
- A drinker or non-drinker
- A university graduate or not
- Wearing clean socks or not
Female Smokers
Well, by 2018, about 7 million South Africans that are 15 years or older were smokers and about 16% of them are female. So that leaves me with 118,485 beautiful women. Here, I am assuming that there are about 16% of female smokers aged 20–29. I am less attracted to female smokers than nonsmokers, in general. Besides, if I am to find my soulmate to spend a lifetime with, I won’t want her to age faster because of smoking tobacco. It’s not just tobacco that I have a problem with. Smoking in general is harmful. Whether someone smokes tobacco, green tea, weed or socks, it’s all harmful. It would be hard for me to date a woman who doesn’t care about her health.
Female Drinkers
About 17.1% of women drink, but the problem here is that there is an overlap with female smokers since some females are both smokers and drinkers.
So, I will just assume that I am ok with female drinkers. Besides, I have a problem with alcoholics, not just any female that drinks alcohol. Women that drink too much come off as too hedonistic for my liking, because I am somewhat of a stoic guy.
Cleanness of Socks
Well, cleanness of socks is important to me, although I don’t have a foot fetish like 18% of heterosexual men. It turns out that 17% of women wear socks more than once before giving them a wash. It’s safe to assume maybe there are 1% of women out there that re-wear their socks at least thrice before cleaning them. So that leaves me with 117,301 women.
Education Level
Well, as a nerd, I desire someone who is just about as intellectual or curiosity as I am. Now the problem is that there are only 6% of South Africans with university degrees. This is a very low percentage. In contrast, the number of people with university degrees in Australia is much higher, it’s 31.4%. Also, in the United Kingdom (33.9%) and Belgium (34.7%). Assuming that there are roughly 6% of females between age 20 -29 with university degrees, then I would be left with 3,016 females who are my potential soulmates out of about 503,767 females aged 20–29.
The Estimate
So, from the pool of only women that I find attractive, my odds of finding someone truly meant for me A.K.A my soulmate, in Johannesburg are about 1 in 67. That means for every 67 women that I find attractive, meet, talk to and/or go on dates with, chances are that only one of them is my soulmate.
Clearly education takes out a large chunk of women. One other thing to know is that the odds significantly decrease, if you add in other certain factors. I found that odds could be as low as 1 in 239 just by including one or two certain factors.
IQ Score
So instead of using education, how about I use IQ scores? Well, I am not a big fan of IQ tests, because what they are supposed to represent or convey is complicated. Intelligence is a complicated thing. What is intelligence really?
Nonetheless, I will just assume that IQ tests are an accurate “measure of intelligence” and use their scores. If someone is highly intelligent, then I suppose for them to be noticeable they have to stand out from the crowd with an above average intelligence. It turns out that the “above average” intelligence IQ score is a score greater than 115.
As we can see, there are about 31.73% of people with an IQ score that is “above average.” So, if we ignore whether a woman has a degree or not and use her IQ score, then I would be left with 15,951 women. In this case, my odds would be 1 in 13. However, the problem is that not every woman knows their IQ test score nor will they just take it and give a score to a guy on request. So, all calculations that follow are based on university female graduates.
A Less Conservative Estimation
Well, you might have had problems with some of my assumptions since there are no statistics readily available for certain things. So now, what if I find almost every woman attractive, let’s say 90% of the women are attractive to me and I am optimistic that half of them would date me? What are my odds then? My odds in this extreme case are 1 in 40. So, for every 40 women aged 20 -29 that I see/meet, chances are that one of them is my soulmate.
An Even Less Conservative Estimation
“All is fair in love and war.” — Sun Tzu
Well, what if I find 90% of the women attractive and I am willing to pursue all of them, regardless of whether they are married or in a relationship? My odds in this case of finding someone meant for me are 1 in 20. Although going after women regardless of their relationship status improves my odds, I consider this as still quite a tall order for an introverted nerd like me. It will probably take me years to meet, talk to and take 20 attractive women on dates, unless if I change certain things about myself. The odds are stacked against anyone who is not that social, when it comes to finding their true love.
Afterword
I will conclude this blog with a thought experiment.
Imagine a bowl with 50 balls labeled with numbers as shown in the picture above. Now imagine these balls as people that you find attractive. If, let’s say, ball number 27 is your soulmate and since love is blind, it seems fitting to ask this: with your eyes closed, how likely is it that you will pick ball number 27 from the bowl? Well… It’s possible, but very unlikely. Right?
With that thought experiment in mind, it might seem less sad that there is such a low chance of finding the one. I see things this way, if there is a 1 in 50 chance that you find your soulmate, that means when things do not work out for you with someone you thought was perfect for you, you must remember that there is a low chance that they are “the one.” Their rejection might be redirection to someone actually meant for you.
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